Wealth Builders Collective - 4/19/2025

The session focused on the rebranding of the MikePairMoney Weekly Technical Analysis webinar into the Wealth Builders Collective. The team reviewed market performance for the week, explored the effects of U.S. tariffs on the global economy, and examined the relationship between tariffs, bond markets, and monetary policy. The meeting concluded with a discussion on key stocks—particularly in the retail sector—and the importance of price confirmation for trend continuation.

Next Steps

Monitor U.S. dollar weakness, especially after a 9.7% decline over the past 54 trading days, and consider its implications on investment strategies.

Explore diversification into international markets and foreign companies to mitigate domestic market risk.

Continue tracking gold and precious metals, considering recent strength and increased central bank purchases.

Review bond market dynamics and their interplay with equities based on group discussions and shared resources.

Monitor developments in Joby Aviation’s partnerships with Uber, Delta, and Toyota for investment opportunities.

Watch retail sector momentum in light of strong retail sales data.

Await GNC's earnings report before adding to any positions.

Share relevant bond market articles and resources in the group chat.

Continue sharing insights on international opportunities in future sessions.

Detailed Summary

Market Overview & Rebranding

The rebrand of the group’s technical analysis webinar into the Wealth Builders Collective was announced, signaling a broader focus beyond charts to holistic wealth-building strategies. Market analysis highlighted a downtrend across the Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell indices, while the S&P 500 showed signs of stabilization, with all recent opens and closes forming a base around 52.70. The VIX dropped from 34.80 to 29, reflecting a decline in volatility. Potential updates to the webinar’s format and focus were briefly mentioned.

Bond Market and Government Financing

Discussion explored how foreign bond sales can lower U.S. bond yields, making it more difficult for the federal government to service its debt. It was noted that bond yield fluctuations not only impact government balance sheets but also affect income for bondholders. The discussion drew comparisons to the IPO market and referenced the global coordination of bond activity, demonstrating the interdependence of international financial systems.

Tariffs and Global Economic Interconnectivity

The economic impact of U.S. tariffs was examined, including potential retaliatory actions from international trade partners. Concerns were raised about the United States’ leverage in global trade, especially amid rising debt levels. Additional insights were shared on how tariffs might disrupt supply chains and influence central banks' policy decisions, along with manufacturer behavior and U.S. consumption trends.

Tariffs Disrupting Bond Market Norms

The group analyzed how recent tariffs have disrupted traditional market correlations, particularly the typical inverse relationship between stocks and bonds. Bond sell-offs in response to trade policies have undermined the perception of bonds as a safe haven. The Federal Reserve’s resistance to political pressure to lower interest rates was also noted as a key development.

Understanding Fed Policy and Market Impacts

The conversation turned to the importance of interpreting the Fed's monetary stance. “Don’t fight the Fed” was emphasized as sound guidance for anticipating stock market direction. Discussions included how tariffs could introduce systemic risk to the financial system, and copper was identified as a potential long-term investment due to its relevance in the technological sector.

Sector and Stock Performance Review

A review of sector performance showed declines across technology, financials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary. Gold emerged as a strong performer amid market uncertainty. Notable individual stock movements were discussed, including a sharp post-earnings decline in UnitedHealth Group (UNH), which weighed on the healthcare sector. Within the “Mag 8,” most stocks struggled to break out of recent ranges, though Netflix showed potential if it could hold key levels.

Emerging Technologies and Aerial Transport

Discussion covered emerging investment opportunities in unmanned aerial vehicles. Companies like Joby Aviation and Archer were reviewed in the context of potential partnerships with major transportation players. The growing importance of the sector and potential long-term value were noted, with several members expressing interest in expanding positions.

Technical Stock Analysis

A wide range of stocks was analyzed from a technical standpoint, including Apple, Palantir, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Nike, On Holding, Deckers, Costco, and ConocoPhillips. Patterns, price action, and support/resistance levels were reviewed. Recent portfolio adjustments were shared, including scaling into certain positions and reallocating from underperforming holdings.

Sector Momentum and Global Opportunities

The team observed that April had brought a strong rebound in several sectors, including oil, banking, travel, and aerospace. Stocks like Exxon, Chevron, Wells Fargo, and Boeing were highlighted as showing upward potential. International funds and defense-related ETFs also attracted attention as areas of possible growth.

Stock-Specific Opportunities

A range of companies—Rocket Lab, McDonald’s, Texas Roadhouse, T-Mobile, Verizon, AT&T, Walmart, Target, Ross, and TJX—were evaluated for resilience amid trade-related volatility. Members looked for confirmation signals (price breakouts) before entering new trades.

Retail Sector and Global Diversification

Retail sales were reported up nearly 2%, sparking discussion on dollar store chains such as Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below. Breakout points were identified, and the conversation expanded to include Pfizer, homebuilders, and gold. The group was encouraged to remain open to foreign investments, recognizing missed gains like gold’s 35% rise this year. The session ended with a call to broaden horizons and pursue strategies beyond traditional U.S.-based equities.